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Will Paxson make the Wright selection?


With the NBA Draft just a day away and the Bulls’ plans still cloaked in Berto Center secrecy, John Paxson has his hands full preparing for a night in which his team owns the No. 9, 49 and 51 picks.

Paxson reportedly has engaged in trade talks involving the lottery pick, but as of now, nothing has materialized. Draft Day trades are not uncommon, so it’s too early to say whether or not the Bulls will use the pick to deal for a big name like Pau Gasol or Marcus Camby or – and this is looking more unlikely by the day – Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett.

If no such deal comes to fruition, trading down in the draft remains a possibility. Colorado State big man Jason Smith, a face-up 7-footer with good shooting touch, appears a decent possibility if the Bulls go that route.

But just to simplify things here, let’s assume the Bulls hang onto the No. 9 pick. In that case, like the rest of his GM brethren, Paxson’s charge will be to wade through all the film, all the scouting reports, all the individual workouts and all the combine results in order to land a good, young prospect the team can develop.

Paxson has a strong draft track record with selections like Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng and Chris Duhon, while early indications are that last year’s selections of Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha should be big contributors in Year 2.

But the draft is what-have-you-done-for-me-lately time, which means Paxson has to prove his talent-evaluating acumen all over again. No small task.

The 2007 Draft is Grand Canyon-deep, but in some ways, that only adds pressure: with so many studs to choose from, picking a dud would hurt that much more. And with the seeming fluidity of picks following Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, Paxson must prepare for any number of players being available at No. 9.

The Bulls’ pick could very well come from a strong group that includes Florida’s Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer, Washington’s Spencer Hawes, Georgetown’s Jeff Green and Kansas’ Julian Wright. Those prospects all bring some exciting skills to the table that in other years would likely have made them long gone by the No. 9 pick. Those are also the names we’ve been hearing about for some time as a potential Chicago selection.

But two additional players, who just a few weeks ago seemed certain to be gone by the ninth pick, now apparently might slip to the Bulls.

The first is Chinese import Yi Jianlian. I’ve been on the Yi bandwagon for a while now, figuring this is the last time the steadily improving Bulls will be picking in the lottery for some time, so why not try to shoot the moon on what several scouts are calling the No. 3 or 4 talent in the draft. Since then, nothing’s happened to change my mind on Yi ... well, unless this guy’s still around.

North Carolina’s Brandan Wright, a 6-foot-10, extraordinarily athletic 19-year-old with good, if raw skills around the basket and the ability to run the court like a guard, is rumored to have fallen out of favor with some high-lottery teams.

Apparently scared off by the possibility that the young Wright will need extra time to develop, that he has a questionable motor and that he needs to add 20 pounds to a lean, 210-pound frame (all legitimate concerns), teams seem suddenly wary of the mega-talented big man once pegged as a lock top-five selection.

The feeling in some corners of Chicago is that the Bulls need someone ready to contribute immediately – ideally a low-post scorer – because the clock is ticking on Ben Wallace and because the East is imminently winnable right now. All that may be true, but it doesn’t make for a sound draft philosophy.

Ben Wallace is a piece of the Chicago puzzle, but not the centerpiece. He’s not the guy you build around for the future. The selection Thursday night has to be made irrespective of Wallace and irrespective of the lowly Eastern Conference competition.

The pick has to be the prospect the organization deems it can mold into the best basketball player. If that player happens to be a so-called NBA-ready prospect, all the better. But getting enamored of NBA-readiness can be dangerously short-sighted business.

For a team engaged in a seemingly eternal search for a difference-making low-post scorer, Wright, who has a potentially lethal left-handed jump-hook, seems like a no-brainer – if he’s still there. Wright might not drop all the way to No. 9, making all this a moot point.

But if he does drop, the Bulls would do well to get their hands on the scoring big man they’ve been after since Paxson took over as GM. Wright represents a substantial risk, but unlike the other teams in the lottery, the Bulls were in the playoffs last year. And the two years before that. This isn’t a make-or-break pick for the Bulls; they can afford to take a calculated risk.

Paxson’s generally regarded as a risk-averse GM, but last year’s selection of Tyrus Thomas – an extraordinarily athletic 19-year-old (sound familiar?) – is evidence of Paxson’s willingness to take a chance on a prospect with big upside.

The way Thomas came on down the stretch last season, who knows, maybe Paxson plays that hand once more Thursday. Here’s hoping he does.

Discuss

BRAD SELLERS, 06-28-2007

There's no way Yi falls to 9. Green, Noah, Wright(s) maybe. Yi won't make it past Boston, if he even gets THAT far.

ANDREW, 06-28-2007

Thanks, J.C. I always liked you more than Dickey Simpkins. It'd be great if B. Wright or Yi dropped to the Bulls. There are loads of good prospects, but I really like the upside on those two. The other dimension here is that no one wants to trade with the Bulls right now because no one knows who'll be available at No 9. But if suddenly B. Wright and/or Yi are hanging around when the Bulls are on the clock, Paxson could very well find some highly motivated trade partners because, again, those two are perceived to have big-time potential.

THE GHOST OF JASON CAFFEY, 06-27-2007

Great article! I hope Brandan Wright falls to the Bulls also (Julian Wright...not so high on). Or Yi. But please, no Noah.

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