About this blog

Depillamug

Mike DePilla follows the White Sox on their quest for truth, justice and another championship


Recent posts

Depilla

Swisher Trade No Slam Dunk


That "swishing" sound you hear is the Sox farm system being sucked utterly dry in Ken Williams' darkhorse attempt to win the 2008 World Series.

Trading the organization's top two pitching prospects, Gio Gonzalez and Fautino de los Santos, along with the faded but not gone luster of Ryan Sweeney, Williams paid the hefty price tag for a superstar. Nick Swisher is a very good player, bound for improvement over the four years of his modest contract. But he is not a superstar.

Basically the Sox got their Aaron Rowand archetype, a hard-nosed, wild-haired grinder, but with much more upside, youth and financial flexibility.

To that end, this is a good move for the White Sox. There's a decent chance the 27-year-old Swisher, who is just entering his prime, is a on the verge of a break out season.

Three big factors are there: First, obviously, is his age. Twenty-seven is traditionally considered the age when players hit their peak production years, and '08 will only be Swisher's fourth full season in the big leagues. The best is yet to come.

Second, his recent stats have all trended upward. Each of the past three seasons Swisher has improved his batting average (.236 to .254 to .262), OBP (.322 to .372 to .381) and BB/K (0.50 to 0.64 to 0.76). His power numbers spiked in 2006, when he hit 35 homeruns and knocked in 95, before shrinking somewhat to 22 and 78 in '07. Still, his SLG is likely to reach a near .500 rate in 2008 and beyond.

And third, the move from Oakland's spacious canyon of a park to the hitter-friendly Cell should further pad his offensive production-if history is any indication his power numbers will rise noticeably while his batting average may stagnate.

But I have to ask: what happened to the mantra of "pitching wins championships"? It wasn't too long ago that Williams' philosophy of stockpiling pitchers won a World Series. Yes, the '05 Sox mashed a lot of homeruns and, at least theoretically could play some over-hyped "smallball." But don't fool yourself-it was the elite pitching that brought home the hardware.

Back then Williams wouldn't think twice about trading .400-hitting Jeremy Reed or uber-prospect Chris Young for a workhorse like Freddy Garcia or Javier Vazquez. He was willing to bring in veteran starters like Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras to eat innings and lend experience.

Whether you liked those deals or not, the message was clear: pitching first. But now it seems he has inexplicably reversed ship. In the last three months, Williams has dealt away starting pitchers Jon Garland, Gonzalez and de los Santos and received not a single hurler in return.

Even taking as a given the Sox' desire to compete in 2008, pitching should be the central focus for a win now ballclub. What changed this year? Earth to Ken Williams: you can load up the line up all you want, the team will go nowhere without quality starting pitching.

Could he possibly have that much faith in Gavin Freaking Floyd, who looked like he should be on the couch in Dr. Melfi's office as opposed to the mound at the Cell, where he gave up homers fast and furious?

If Oakland, who already acquired former Sox farmhands Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham and Fernando Hernandez in December, liked Sox prospects so much, why not try to swing a Carter, Gonzalez, de los Santos and Sweeney for Dan Haren trade before Arizona swooped in? Or maybe add another piece, like Floyd, and get them to include Joe Blanton or even Rich Harden with Swisher?

Putting everything behind as "what's done is done" and temporarily ignoring the future, this team has improved to an 80-to-85-win plateau but is still two moves away from being serious contenders in 2008. My fear is that Williams is done with major moves, sacrificing the future for a so-so 2008 team.

Is there still a chance Williams looks into making a run at Erik Bedard? The free agent crop looks pretty bad, but Bartolo Colon, a former Cy Young winner, is the best available. Williams has already gone this far, he needs to round up anything he has left to take the next step.

As for the line up, Swisher's high OBP will be more than adequate in the leadoff post, though his lack of speed and stolen base ability might irk Ozzie somewhat. (I'd still prefer an Alex Rios, Ryan Freel or Brian Roberts-who, unlike Roger Clemens, is a stand up guy in the face of steroid allegations-as a lead off hitter, but that ship may have sailed.)

Right now you're looking at a solid one-through-nine of:

Swisher CF

Cabrera SS

Thome DH

Konerko 1B

Dye RF

Fields 3B

Pierzynski C

Quentin LF

Richar 2B

I like Orlando Cabrera, Carlos Quentin and Swisher quite a bit. They were worthy targets and will improve the Sox tepid offense heartily. But a rotation with Jose Contreras, Danks and Floyd just cannot be taken seriously; it baffles me how the Sox brass ignores this huge concern.

This isn't a team counting on one guy to have a break out season. They're counting on not one, not two but three starting pitchers to completely reverse their fortunes of last season. That's 60% of the rotation. And of course the other two, Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez, have to repeat their above-average performances. Simply, it's not a good bet.

So why is Kenny making it?

Discuss

MIKE DEPILLA, 01-05-2008

BEDARD:

I doubt Crede, Broadway and Gavin would be enough to get Bedard. Konerko would probably have to be involved somehow, maybe in a three-way.



RAMIREZ:

Eh, I don't expect all that much out of him right away. I think the Sox see him as more of a prospect, possibly spending a year in Triple-A to get acclimated to the US, then maybe taking over in CF, 2B or SS in '09.



BEANE:

Billy Beane does have a keen eye...but he's not infallible. He did trade away Aaron Harang. Plus Dan Meyer, the key piece in the Tim Hudson trade, never panned out.



But this was still a steep price, and I agree KW didn't have to include his best two pitching prospects AND his best OF prospect! Why not one or the other and then a C-level throw in?



SWISHER:

Supposedly he plays an adequate CF, but he'd be much better defensively in LF or 1B. He'd be a good lead off hitter because of his high OBP, but he's not a speed burner.

BABY Z, 01-05-2008

You're right, pitching wins championships. Farmio always says

"IF the Sox are up to bat the other team can't score." Weak starting pitching equals big innings with lots of runs scored. Swisher can play first base. I wonder..... Should Pauly keep his bags packed?

NICKY, 01-04-2008

I like Swisher, I think he's going to be a great player, but there is no reason to give up the three best prospects in the already baren farm system. I don't think that Swisher is a lead off hitter, and his defensive in center that great?

I also have to ask, did Billy Beane demand Ryan Sweeny (the one sox outfield prospect with the most upside)? Because why couldnt KW sneak Brian Anderson or Jerry Owens in that deal?

The last point I want to mention is that Billy Beane seems to have a keen pitching eye, he traded and developed Mulder, Hudson, Zito, Harden, Haren, Blanton, Harang, and a bunch of others. So this move seems to scream that DLS and Gio are going to be studs.



p.s. i love how this move is getting no attention from ESPN (who didnt even list it on the bottom line most of last night, although they made special MLB mention to Roger Clemens and steriods, and Matt Clement to the Cardinals).

JACK, 01-04-2008

Looks like Bartolo is going to the Royals. What kind of pitcher(s) do you think the Sox could get for Crede? Also do you think this Alexie Ramirez fellow the Sox signed going to be in the mix to start at second?

JJ, 01-04-2008

Just go for it all now. Crede, Broadway, Gavin for Bedard

KENNY, 01-04-2008

Thats a decent lineup. However trading away prospects will only put the Sox in this same position next year. They should be developing their own guys like they used to. Oh well.

Worried about Sertraline side effects?

Pharmacy

Visit Adverse-effects.org to learn more about the side effects of Sertraline