At last the long awaited
series between the Cardinals and Cubs has arrived-the battle of two
teams that have been really good yet neither has pulled away with
the division.
So what's the story line? Is
it the once outcast Jim Edmonds returning to St. Louis for the
first time? Carlos Zambrano's return to the rotation? No. None of
those, actually. This weekends' battle
is about two teams with beleaguered and battered
bullpens.
Paying attention to both
teams the last few weeks and given Carlos Marmol's stunning tribute
to my post with another confounding 3-run homer last night, I can't
help but have my mind fixed on who can win the early inning
battles-because if these games are close in the late innings,
it's totally up for grabs.
Breaking down the Cubs'
broken down relief core, Kerry Wood appears the strongest member-and he's your closer. Unless
Zambrano, for example, goes 8 innings tonight (which he won't
because he just got off the DL), that's not entirely helpful. After
being unimpressive, Pedro Ascanio will be back in Triple-A with Zambrano now on the active
roster, so that leaves the Cubs' pen with 4 righties and a lefty,
not including Sean Marshall who will likely make a start on
Sunday.
The next most reliable right
now, and I can't believe I'm saying this, is Michael
Wuertz.Wuertz has very quietly taken
his ERA down from 4.80 in the beginning of May to 2.70. The key is
that he's been striking more guys out and let's hope that trend
continues because Marmol will not be seeing a lot of tough
situation action. The Cubs are apparently going to be checking to
see if Marmol is tipping his pitches. Untill they figure out what his deal is, he's probably not
going to see action with men on base I would
guess.
In the meanwhile, Bob
Howry will be filling Marmol's shoes as the set-up man on a
consistent basis.While Howry's ERA is
not exactly flattering at 4.43, he doesn't walk many
batters. As usual, Neil
Cotts and Jon Lieber
will see filler time, most likely when the Cubs
are losing.
So what about St.
Louis?If you're a Cub fan who doesn't
know the name Dave Duncan by now,
then you don't know the source of your Cubs/Cards rivalry
pain. He has turned starting pitchers
Kyle Lohse and former Cub Todd
Wellemeyerinto reliable and winning
starters with ERAs under 4.00. If he's so
good, you have to wonder why Jason
Marquisdidn't stay on the Cards…hmm…
Anyway, combine that with the
hitting they've gotten out of guys like Ryan
Ludwick, who has put up all-star
caliber numbers this season and Skip
Schumaker, alongside the reliable
Albert Pujols and Rick Ankiel and this is a club that should be
contending. Why haven't they overtaken the Cubs then? Relief
pitching.
First of all, they have no
left-handed relief pitching. Expect the
Cubs to find ways of getting guys like Mike Fontenot a lot of
at-bats at least pinch-hitting. That could also spell a terrific
homecoming of sorts for Jim Edmonds. Russ Springer
has been the most dominant, but he's only pitched
25 innings all season. Ryan Franklin, who has spent some time in the closer role because of the
inept Jason Isringhausen, and Kyle
McClellanhave put up Wuertz-esque
numbers, with ERAs just under 3. The rest have been spotty at best,
but at least they sent Mike Parisi back down for blowing any chance
he got. Mark Mulder has gotten
rocked in his BP stint so far too, which doesn't bode well for the
former Cards star. Basically, if you can get the starting
pitchers out early, it helps.
Tonight's match-up will be
Zambrano's return vs. Braden Looper, who has pitched well against the Cubs, but has been the
Cardinal's weak link in the rotation recently. For the Cubs to win,
they need to break Looper early. With Carlos fresh off an injury,
the offense needs to carry this one.
It should be a good series,
but there will be some major questions in Chicago if the Cubs don't
win it.










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