For the first time in years, beating the Reds is important. Like, "dear lord, at least let us be better than the Reds" important. Since the Lou Piniella era, the Cubs are 18-18 against Cincinnati. This season, .500 won't cut it, and 1-2 is not a good start.

The Reds sit at 28-25, a game ahead of the Cubs in the Central. If the Cubs can't push them out of the way, they'll never have a chance at the Brewers and Cardinals, and sadly, it looks like the Reds will need to be pushed this season.

The Reds are a lot like the Cubs this season with just slightly better numbers offensively and slightly lesser numbers on the mound. They get a lot done by the long ball and the team alone hits just around .250. Their pitchers also average 6.1 innings per start, same as the Cubs. The difference is that despite tied for last in save opportunities with 15, Francisco Cordero has converted 14 of them. After the atrocity of Tuesday night, that stat means something.

No matter what happens this weekend, the Cubs can be thankful that they won't see two players in their first trip to the Great American Ball Park: Johnny Cueto and Joey Votto. Oh, and it certainly helps that Ted Lilly won't start either.

Cueto has been the Reds' savior this season. With young ace Edinson Volquez hurt in addition to having control issues and the other 3 starters all having ERAs over 4.00, Cueto's 4th best ERA in the NL at 2.43 has been the only thing keeping this Reds team from being right where it was last season, only getting things done on offense. Considering Cueto shut out the Cubs in April and averages 7 innings a start, the Cubs will gladly face him another time.

Votto was hitting .357 with 8 HR and 33 RBI before asking to go the DL at the end of May for personal reasons. Against the Cubs? In his three seasons, he has 10 home runs and 24 RBI, the best split against any team in his career. 

Ted Lilly, as great as he's been this season, has been slammed by the Reds as a Cub. Lilly has not gotten a win against the Reds since April 4, 2007. Since then he is 0-6 with 4 of those losses coming in 2008, where his ERA vs. the Reds was 8.15. That's his worst winning percentage against any team in baseball in his 11-year career, with a majority of those years in the AL with Toronto and the Yankees.

But the Cubs will have other things to contend with. One is Bronson Arroyo in game 3 of the series, who is tied for most wins in the NL with 7. Although he has just a 5.74 ERA this season, lifetime against the Cubs it's 3.18. That's his best split against any National League team in 7 seasons in the NL (based on # of games started, which is 18). With Randy Wells slated to go opposite him, you can bet the odds are in favor of the Cubs doing nothing in that one Sunday. Micah Owings who the Cubs face tonight is the least threatening and one can only guess how southpaw Matt Maloney will fare in his MLB debut tomorrow though he boasts a 2.00 ERA in AAA-Lousiville this season. Pitching-wise, the Cubs best chance to win the series is to snatch the opener and hope Dempster pitches like he did against Los Angeles last weekend in game 2.

On the other side of the ball, the Cubs have to be wary of Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips going deep. Though Adam Dunn being traded away was a blessing? The Reds got rid of them because they had an identical player in Bruce. Bruce is hitting a dismal .212 but he has 13 home runs. Did I mention, like Dunn, he bats lefty and plays a mediocre right field? Phillips has driven in 40 this season, vital to the Reds scoring attack. They get a lot done within their first 5 batters, so the key is keeping the first few guys off base.

Taking 2 of 3 on the road here would be huge and would even the Cubs with the Reds in the standings. With the injury questions surrounding Milton Bradley's status with his strained calf (a rant for another day) and the rest that Alfonso Soriano hasn't been getting with his knee, a lot will ride on guys like Reed Johnson at least and possibly Micah Hoffpauir to produce when they're in the line-up.