Trouble could be Brewin'

By Steven Chaitman | Jul 24, 11:52 AM

The Cubs will start their most important home stand of the season so far tonight.

Call the statement a stretch or whatever you will, but I never trust a fish in Wrigley Field. And no, I'm not just talking about the sushi.

Maybe it's because of 2003, or maybe it's because the Cubs have lost their last 10 games against the Marlins. Either way, I despise the organization and the fact that yet again it fields a solid team despite trading all its premiere talent in the off-season.

But no, Cub fans, it's not just that either. Add the fact that the Cubs are coming off their worst road slump. Add that they will be back home where as it now stands they are dominant. Add the fact that on Monday, they start a 4-game series in Milwaukee against a team that currently owns a 7-game winning streak and lays just a game behind them. That just reeks of make-or-break.

Maybe make-or-break isn't the best term, but more like crush or be crushed. If any remnants of the middle-order hitting slump or the shaky relief continues in this series against the Marlins and the Cubs win 2 games or less, not only could the Brewers easily be atop the NL Central by Monday, they could have the Cubs 4 back by the end of the weekend.

Losing to the Marlins would kill this team's confidence heading into what will actually be the most pivotal series yet. Considering the final game with the Cardinals and the Astros are the only things between the Brewers and next week's NL Central showdown (in Milwaukee no less), it's safe to guess the Brewers will have that confidence.

I could voice all my concerns about the Cubs facing the Brewers (like they are responsible for 4 Cubs home losses this season), but I will let this series with the Marlins dictate the severity of those concerns.

The stage is set for the Cubs, and to do anything but win 3 of 4 would be disappointing and worthy of deeming legitimate concern. It's a series at home and it features the bread and butter of this rotation with Zambrano, Dempster and Harden in the first three games. That's a guarantee for a chance to win right there-and if it's not-well then the Cubs will have bigger problems than just this series.

The key to a celebratory fish fry on Sunday will be a matter of Cubs pitchers keeping the ball in the park. Florida leads the league in homeruns, but is only 10^th in hits and 12^th in batting average. Considering how many home runs the Cubs gave up to the Diamondbacks of all teams, this is a bit concerning. The Marlins won't beat you with their pitching with a below average team ERA, so if the offense shows up and gets the job done while building run support, this should be nothing to panic over. Then again, we said that when the Marlins came to Wrigley in October '03.

Tagged: baseball, Cubs